Risikobewertung des Sektors
Coface anticipates 2022 growth rate to reach 4.1%, after 5.6% in 2021. Demand in the manufacturing sector has rebounded strongly in the richest countries thanks to the mitigation of containment measures. The sustained demand following the easing of the lockdowns created a mismatch between supply and demand, inducing strong pressures on prices. Many base metals suffered years of underinvestment, notably after the “Supercycle”, and as such, all the conditions are met to keep the current imbalance between supply and demand somewhat alive in the forthcoming quarters.
However, in recent months, prices of some metals have fallen from the record highs reached in 2021, notably steel prices in China and in Europe. This suggests that the overall recovery in metals may be stagnating. Markets are anticipating a slowdown in Chinese demand, as authorities want to curb the expansion of the steel sector to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets. Furthermore, authorities are acting swiftly to reduce speculation around metal prices to help downstream sectors cope with higher input prices, while the construction sector is seen as vulnerable due to difficulties experienced by big real estate and property developers.
Finally, although it is very hard to anticipate trends in details, metal prices, which peaked in 2021, seem to be stabilising now, in line with Chinese demand (50% of world metal demand) that is continuing to grow, but at a slower pace. It should be noted that new waves of the pandemic can occur, and may threaten the global economy and therefore the metals sector.